By Robin Kwong in Taipei 2009-08-10
兰德：解放军能轻易打赢台海空战
英国《金融时报》邝彦晖(Robin Kwong)台北报道 2009-08-10
China's build-up of increasingly advanced short-range missiles near the Taiwan Strait "calls into question Washington's ability to credibly serve as guarantor of Taiwan's security", according to a report by a global policy think-tank.
美国全球政策智库——兰德公司(Rand Corporation)的最新报告认为，中国大陆在靠近台湾海峡的地方不断部署日趋先进的短程导弹，"给华盛顿可信地担当台湾安全保证人的能力画上了问号"。
A report released last week by the Rand Corporation said China was increasing both the number and quality of its short-range ballistic missiles, about 1,000 of which were deployed near the strait. The growing sophistication and accuracy of the missiles meant that, by 2013, China would need to launch just 240 missiles to disable Taiwan's entire airforce temporarily.
兰德公司上周发布的一份报告称，中国大陆正提高其短程弹道导弹的数量和质量，在台湾海峡附近部署了大约1000枚这样的导弹。这些导弹的技术含量和精确度不断提高意味着，到2013年，中国大陆只需发射240枚导弹，就能让台湾的全部空军力量暂时陷入瘫痪。
This, combined with the fact that Taiwan was much closer to China than the nearest US bases in Okinawa, Japan, meant the air war for Taiwan could "essentially be over before much of [Taiwan and the US] air forces have even fired a shot", the report said.
另外，与距离台湾最近的、位于日本冲绳的美军基地相比，台湾与中国大陆之间的距离要近得多。报告表示，上述两点意味着，台海空战可能"在（台湾和美国）空军基本上还未来得及开火时，实质上就已经结束"。
It added, however, that any Chinese attempt to invade with ground troops could likely still be repelled by the Taiwanese army.
不过，该报告补充称，中国大陆用地面部队进攻台湾的任何企图，可能仍会被台湾陆军击退。
Prospects of war between China and Taiwan, the democratically-ruled island Beijing regards as an integral part of its territory, have diminished greatly since Ma Ying-jeou took the presidential office in Taipei last year on promises to mend fences with China.
自马英九去年以修复两岸关系为号召，竞选成功就任台湾总统以来，中国大陆与台湾之间开战的可能性已经大为减小。台湾是一个民主政体的岛屿，北京视其为中国领土不可分割的一部分。
But the shifting military balance in Taiwan highlights the broader issues of the US's diminishing ability to control the skies against China's air force in the region, should the need arise.
但是，台海军力平衡的转变，突显出更广泛的议题，即美国在必要时掌控该地区制空权、击败中国大陆空军的能力逐渐减小。
Taiwan could, therefore, "be seen as a possible prelude to a broader challenge to the United States in east Asia that might emerge in the next 10–20 years", said the report.
报告表示，台湾因此可能"被视为未来10至20年在东亚向美国发起更广泛挑战的一个可能的序曲"。
It paints a more pessimistic picture of US military influence in the strait than Rand's previous study on the subject seven years ago, which had concluded that Taiwan "stands a relatively good chance of denying Beijing the air and sea superiority needed to transport a significant number of ground troops safely across the strait".
与兰德7年前对同一问题的研究相比，这份报告对美国在台海军事影响力的看法更为悲观。7年前的报告认为，台湾"有相当大的可能性，能够阻止北京得到将大量地面部队安全运送到海峡对岸所需的制空权和制海权"。
George Tsai, a cross-strait expert in Taiwan, said it was clear that "Taiwan is indefensible in the long run . . . even if the US provides us with its full military support".
台湾的两岸关系专家蔡玮(George Tsai)表示，很明显，长远而言台湾是守不住的，"即使美方向我们提供全面军事支持"。
This did not mean, however, that the US's involvement in the region should be lessened. "Now the [cross-strait] question has become a political one of how to make sure the two sides do not go to war," he said.
不过，这并不意味着美国应该减少对台海事务的介入。蔡玮说，现在两岸问题已经变成一个如何确保双方不会开战的政治问题。
译者/和风
